World Should Welcome Barack Obama’s Nuclear Push

To hear Mr Obama’s critics, you would think precious little. For all its glitz, they say, this week’s huge summit was largely a restatement of policies that have been languishing because they are unenforceable. Likewise, the administration’s declaration that it would not unleash nukes on non-weapons states that lived by the rules of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was criticised either for being unwise (because it curtailed deterrence against biological and chemical weapons), or misleading (because it is so full of loopholes that it does not curtail deterrence much at all. And although the START treaty with Russia was good enough, all three events missed the main point: the threat of proliferation from hostile,unbiddable states like Iran.The world should welcome Barack Obama’s nuclear push—but it is only a start.

FOR years at a stretch nuclear negotiators toil away uninterrupted deep in their diplomatic bunkers. But three times in as many weeks Barack Obama has dragged them out dazed and blinking before the Klieg lights: first for an arms treaty with Russia, then to recast America’s own policy and now for a summit in Washington, DC. It is the most eye-catching piece of nuclear theatrics since Ronald Reagan squared up to Mikhail Gorbachev in Reykjavik. But what has it achieved?

To hear Mr Obama’s critics, you would think precious little. For all its glitz, they say, this week’s huge summit was largely a restatement of policies that have been languishing because they are unenforceable. Likewise, the administration’s declaration that it would not unleash nukes on non-weapons states that lived by the rules of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was criticised either for being unwise (because it curtailed deterrence against biological and chemical weapons), or misleading (because it is so full of loopholes that it does not curtail deterrence much at all). And although the START treaty with Russia was good enough, all three events missed the main point: the threat of proliferation from hostile, unbiddable states like Iran.

Such criticism is too harsh. Mr Obama’s diplomacy, bolstered by his success over health-care reform, has in fact secured real gains, even if they are more modest than all the hoopla suggests. Many countries brought what Mr Obama’s people called “house gifts” to the summit. Some are getting rid of their stocks of highly enriched uranium or plutonium, both used in bombs. Others are lowering the risk of proliferation from reactors. Still others will now ratify conventions and bolster the International Atomic Energy Authority. It is geeky stuff and does not secure the low-grade nuclear isotopes that could be sprayed around in a “dirty bomb”—but it will help combat the threat of a terrorist nuclear attack.

Moreover, such steps also boost Mr Obama’s efforts to achieve something greater. Of late, confidence in the NPT has been wearing thin—and not just because of the obvious cheats like North Korea and Iran (or, for that matter, non-signatories like Israel, India and Pakistan). Everyday nuclear diplomacy has been jammed by chronic disagreements. That was worrying because the collective faith that sustains the NPT is easily frayed. When a state fears its enemies will develop nuclear weapons, it has a reason to get ahead by launching a programme of its own. Mr Obama’s consensus-building may stop that slide. Can he gain momentum in the opposite direction?

An alpha particle for effort:-

One test will come next month, with the five-yearly conference to review the NPT. The fight against proliferation needs, at the very least, countries to sign up to tougher inspections and punishment against anyone that pulls out of the NPT to go nuclear, as North Korea did. It needs a ban on tests and on making uranium and plutonium for bombs. Such steps face foes at every turn—not least in America’s own Congress, which is suspicious of new treaties. Another test, hard on its heels, will be an agreement on sanctions against Iran. Although Hu Jintao, in Washington to mend fences, seemed a trifle more open to that idea, stopping Iran will be hard.

There is no certainty that the new mood engendered by Mr Obama’s nuclear parade is equal to such obstacles, but it could ease the work ahead. Now, back to the bunker.

Source:Economist.